Below you will find any/all changes made this offseason for play calling OCs. Additionally, based on truly neutral game scripts we investigated how (if at all) things may change with their new teams, especially in True Run vs Pass rates.
|Tm||Coach||Prev. OC Tm.s||Neutral Prev Tm.s Tend.||What to glean from playcaller’s previous tendencies (using neutral game data)|
|MIA||Chan Gaily||NYJ 19||small run||from 8 pass in 19 to 22 pass (run goes up?)|
|CLE||Alex Van Pelt||CIN QB 19 (BUF 09 last OC)||minimal||cin 7 pass in 19 10 13 pass (small pass goes up?) , cant glean much from 09 buf except they were bad and MAY run a bit more…|
|JAX||Jay Gruden||OC Cinn 11-13, WAS as HC since||run||way more running as HC ly than JAX in same time, then in 3 years at OC BY DVOA ONLY over 3 yr, was neutral bad, both good and then run way gooder|
|DEN||Pat Shurmr||OC MIN 17, NYG HC since||small pass||MIN was 22nd pass rate in 17 (yet were 3rd pass in dvoa vs 18 run), yet NYG 9th most pass LY as HC (whereas den was 25h pass most)|
|NYG||Jason Garret||07 DAL OC, HC rest||no change|
|WAS||Scott Turner||first timer, QB CAR 18-19||big pass||new guy plus car was 2 pass, while was was 27 pass|
|CHI||Bill Lazor||17-18 CIN OC||minimal||CIN averaged 15th pass rate in 17/18|
|CAR||Joe BRady||first timer, LSU LY||small run?||really cant pass more than 2nd most|
|LAR||Kevin OConnell||19 WAS OC||big run||from 27 to 4 pass|
Using TRULY neutral Run/Pass rates, ONLY in times when the OC was actually calling plays, it turns out there is only 1 actual OC change that we determine will have a predictive effect on a team relative to 2019’s ratio: Washington. The new OC, Turner passed at the 2nd highest (neutral) rate, whereas the Redskins were 27th in the same metric last season.