2020 OC Changes and their Impact on Fantasy Football

Below you will find any/all changes made this offseason for play calling OCs. Additionally, based on truly neutral game scripts we investigated how (if at all) things may change with their new teams, especially in True Run vs Pass rates.

TmCoachPrev. OC Tm.sNeutral Prev Tm.s Tend.What to glean from playcaller’s previous tendencies (using neutral game data)
MIAChan GailyNYJ 19small runfrom 8 pass in 19 to 22 pass (run goes up?)
CLEAlex Van PeltCIN QB 19 (BUF 09 last OC)minimalcin 7 pass in 19 10 13 pass (small pass goes up?) , cant glean much from 09 buf except they were bad and MAY run a bit more…
JAXJay GrudenOC Cinn 11-13, WAS as HC sincerunway more running as HC ly than JAX in same time, then in 3 years at OC BY DVOA ONLY over 3 yr, was neutral bad, both good and then run way gooder
DENPat ShurmrOC MIN 17, NYG HC sincesmall passMIN was 22nd pass rate in 17 (yet were 3rd pass in dvoa vs 18 run), yet NYG 9th most pass LY as HC (whereas den was 25h pass most)
NYGJason Garret07 DAL OC, HC restno change
WASScott Turnerfirst timer, QB CAR 18-19big passnew guy plus car was 2 pass, while was was 27 pass
CHIBill Lazor17-18 CIN OCminimalCIN averaged 15th pass rate in 17/18
CARJoe BRadyfirst timer, LSU LYsmall run?really cant pass more than 2nd most
LARKevin OConnell19 WAS OCbig runfrom 27 to 4 pass

Using TRULY neutral Run/Pass rates, ONLY in times when the OC was actually calling plays, it turns out there is only 1 actual OC change that we determine will have a predictive effect on a team relative to 2019’s ratio: Washington. The new OC, Turner passed at the 2nd highest (neutral) rate, whereas the Redskins were 27th in the same metric last season.

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