2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall
The NFL is filled with parity, “Any Given Sunday” is very much a reality in the league. This is even more evident when zooming out to a season-to-season lens. Dramatic turnarounds are not uncommon from one year to the next: bottom feeders from the year before winning their division, teams that went to the Super Bowl don’t even make the playoffs the next year. Knowing uncertainty is the only certainty in predicting NFL teams on the Rise/Fall, we can use certain metrics that show a level of luck (or lack thereof) that a team may had, and likely will change the next year due to tendency towards the mean.
Last year’s 2018 NFL Predictions did extremely well, combining for 14-1-1 between our risers and fallers, rising and falling. You can find the 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall charted below. We tinkered with the “True Turnover” and “Net Close Win/Loss (NCw/l)” metrics this year to hopefully hone in on the luck factor a tad more. Focusing more on recovery rate, instead of all turnovers, since that’s where we can really pull out the luck factor, and giving the NCw/l metric multiplier points for 1-3 point wins/losses vs 4-8 point wins/losses should improve accuracy even more.
*To learn more about what goes into the metrics and why they can tell us which NFL Teams are on the rise and fall see 2017 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall.
What you see below is an aggregate of individual rankings among the 3 metrics. You can find the full data worksheet here. 1 = Luckiest/most likely to have a worse record than in 2018 and vice-a-versa.
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