2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall

2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall

The NFL is filled with parity, “Any Given Sunday” is very much a reality in the league. This is even more evident when zooming out to a season-to-season lens. Dramatic turnarounds are not uncommon from one year to the next: bottom feeders from the year before winning their division, teams that went to the Super Bowl don’t even make the playoffs the next year. Knowing uncertainty is the only certainty in predicting NFL teams on the Rise/Fall, we can use certain metrics that show a level of luck (or lack thereof) that a team may had, and likely will change the next year due to tendency towards the mean.

Last year’s 2018 NFL Predictions did extremely well, combining for 14-1-1 between our risers and fallers, rising and falling. You can find the 2019 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall charted below. We tinkered with the “True Turnover” and “Net Close Win/Loss (NCw/l)” metrics this year to hopefully hone in on the luck factor a tad more.  Focusing more on recovery rate, instead of all turnovers, since that’s where we can really pull out the luck factor, and giving the NCw/l metric multiplier points for 1-3 point wins/losses vs 4-8 point wins/losses should improve accuracy even more. 

*To learn more about what goes into the metrics and why they can tell us which NFL Teams are on the rise and fall see 2017 NFL Teams on the Rise/Fall.

What you see below is an aggregate of individual rankings among the 3 metrics. You can find the full data worksheet here. 1 = Luckiest/most likely to have a worse record than in 2018 and vice-a-versa.

Luck (1 = Luckiest) Team Fum. Rec. Pyt. NCw/l Ovr.
1 Dallas Cowboys* 7 25 2 11.33
2 Los Angeles Rams* 1 32 1 11.33
3 Washington Redskins 11 17 8 12.00
4 Arizona Cardinals 13 4 20 12.33
5 Detroit Lions 2 10 25 12.33
6 Indianapolis Colts+ 8 23 7 12.67
7 Cleveland Browns 6 15 18 13.00
8 Houston Texans* 3 27 9 13.00
9 Denver Broncos 9 8 23 13.33
10 New Orleans Saints* 5 31 5 13.67
11 Miami Dolphins 21 18 4 14.33
12 Buffalo Bills 25 14 6 15.00
13 Oakland Raiders 28 6 11 15.00
14 Seattle Seahawks+ 4 24 17 15.00
15 Green Bay Packers 14 9 26 16.33
16 New England Patriots* 10 26 13 16.33
17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 5 30 16.67
18 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 19 16 17.00
19 Carolina Panthers 12 12 29 17.67
20 Minnesota Vikings 27 16 10 17.67
21 Cincinnati Bengals 19 11 24 18.00
22 Tennessee Titans 20 22 12 18.00
23 Los Angeles Chargers+ 22 30 3 18.33
24 New York Jets 26 2 27 18.33
25 Chicago Bears* 18 28 14 20.00
26 San Francisco 49ers 31 1 28 20.00
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 7 32 20.67
28 New York Giants 30 3 31 21.33
29 Philadelphia Eagles+ 29 20 15 21.33
30 Kansas City Chiefs* 17 29 19 21.67
31 Atlanta Falcons 32 13 21 22.00
32 Baltimore Ravens* 24 21 22 22.33


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