2018 NFL Predictions

2018 NFL Predictions

You likely remember from last year the 2017 NFL Predictions. There I used 3 key, objective predictive metrics to help us know which teams are rising and falling in the upcoming year.

The 3 key areas we look at to statistically:

  • Net Close Wins/Losses (avid readers have seen this before in NHL NCW/Ls and NBA NCW/Ls)
  • Pythagorean Win Theorem (fully explained for those that don’t want to admit they have no idea what it actually means)
  • Net “Luck” from Turnovers gained (with a little Newmanomics twist)

These data sets help paint a picture of what should have happened “on paper” in 2017, and consequently, give us some insight into 2018.  Each one, independently, provides quality information, but I take it another step at the end and combine all three to give you a complete look at what the numbers are telling us.

*What the findings show (red is going down, green, up):
**See 2017 version link above for the full explanation of each metric

NCG PWT Fum/g Fum/g/2 Overall 2017 Ws
Carolina Panthers -4.00 -2.58 -5.00 -0.63 -7.21 11
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.00 -3.90 -1.00 -0.13 -7.03 13
Philadelphia Eagles -2.00 -3.28 -1.00 -0.13 -5.40 13
Arizona Cardinals -4.00 -0.80 1.00 0.13 -4.68 8
New England Patriots -1.00 -3.28 -2.00 -0.25 -4.53 13
Minnesota Vikings -1.00 -3.36 1.00 0.13 -4.23 13
Buffalo Bills -1.00 -1.69 -1.00 -0.13 -2.81 9
Atlanta Falcons -1.00 -1.54 -2.00 -0.25 -2.79 10
Tennessee Titans -1.00 -1.26 -1.00 -0.13 -2.38 9
New Orleans Saints -1.00 -1.74 5.00 0.63 -2.11 11
Los Angeles Rams -1.00 -1.52 4.00 0.50 -2.02 11
Dallas Cowboys -1.00 -0.74 -2.00 -0.25 -1.99 9
Detroit Lions -1.00 -0.65 -2.00 -0.25 -1.90 9
Miami Dolphins -2.00 0.67 2.00 0.25 -1.08 6
Kansas City Chiefs 1.00 -1.19 -7.00 -0.88 -1.07 10
Green Bay Packers 0.00 0.27 -4.00 -0.50 -0.23 7
Washington Redskins -1.00 0.50 7.00 0.88 0.37 7
Jacksonville Jaguars 1.00 -0.26 -2.00 -0.25 0.49 10
Seattle Seahawks 2.00 -0.61 -6.00 -0.75 0.64 9
Cincinnati Bengals 0.00 0.26 8.00 1.00 1.26 7
New York Jets -1.00 2.01 3.00 0.38 1.39 5
Oakland Raiders 0.00 1.15 5.00 0.63 1.77 6
Baltimore Ravens 3.00 0.05 -8.00 -1.00 2.05 9
Los Angeles Chargers 3.00 0.06 -5.00 -0.63 2.43 9
Indianapolis Colts 1.00 2.31 -1.00 -0.13 3.18 4
Denver Broncos 1.00 1.89 5.00 0.63 3.52 5
Chicago Bears 2.00 2.23 -4.00 -0.50 3.73 5
San Francisco 49ers 3.00 1.42 -2.00 -0.25 4.17 6
New York Giants 1.00 3.21 2.00 0.25 4.46 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.00 2.48 0.00 0.00 5.48 5
Houston Texans 2.00 2.99 6.00 0.75 5.74 4
Cleveland Browns 3.00 5.81 7.00 0.88 9.69 0

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