2018 NFL Predictions
You likely remember from last year the 2017 NFL Predictions. There I used 3 key, objective predictive metrics to help us know which teams are rising and falling in the upcoming year.
The 3 key areas we look at to statistically:
- Net Close Wins/Losses (avid readers have seen this before in NHL NCW/Ls and NBA NCW/Ls)
- Pythagorean Win Theorem (fully explained for those that don’t want to admit they have no idea what it actually means)
- Net “Luck” from Turnovers gained (with a little Newmanomics twist)
These data sets help paint a picture of what should have happened “on paper” in 2017, and consequently, give us some insight into 2018. Each one, independently, provides quality information, but I take it another step at the end and combine all three to give you a complete look at what the numbers are telling us.
*What the findings show (red is going down, green, up):
**See 2017 version link above for the full explanation of each metric
|
NCG |
PWT |
Fum/g |
Fum/g/2 |
Overall |
2017 Ws |
| Carolina Panthers |
-4.00 |
-2.58 |
-5.00 |
-0.63 |
-7.21 |
11 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
-3.00 |
-3.90 |
-1.00 |
-0.13 |
-7.03 |
13 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
-2.00 |
-3.28 |
-1.00 |
-0.13 |
-5.40 |
13 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
-4.00 |
-0.80 |
1.00 |
0.13 |
-4.68 |
8 |
| New England Patriots |
-1.00 |
-3.28 |
-2.00 |
-0.25 |
-4.53 |
13 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
-1.00 |
-3.36 |
1.00 |
0.13 |
-4.23 |
13 |
| Buffalo Bills |
-1.00 |
-1.69 |
-1.00 |
-0.13 |
-2.81 |
9 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
-1.00 |
-1.54 |
-2.00 |
-0.25 |
-2.79 |
10 |
| Tennessee Titans |
-1.00 |
-1.26 |
-1.00 |
-0.13 |
-2.38 |
9 |
| New Orleans Saints |
-1.00 |
-1.74 |
5.00 |
0.63 |
-2.11 |
11 |
| Los Angeles Rams |
-1.00 |
-1.52 |
4.00 |
0.50 |
-2.02 |
11 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
-1.00 |
-0.74 |
-2.00 |
-0.25 |
-1.99 |
9 |
| Detroit Lions |
-1.00 |
-0.65 |
-2.00 |
-0.25 |
-1.90 |
9 |
| Miami Dolphins |
-2.00 |
0.67 |
2.00 |
0.25 |
-1.08 |
6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
1.00 |
-1.19 |
-7.00 |
-0.88 |
-1.07 |
10 |
| Green Bay Packers |
0.00 |
0.27 |
-4.00 |
-0.50 |
-0.23 |
7 |
| Washington Redskins |
-1.00 |
0.50 |
7.00 |
0.88 |
0.37 |
7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
1.00 |
-0.26 |
-2.00 |
-0.25 |
0.49 |
10 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
2.00 |
-0.61 |
-6.00 |
-0.75 |
0.64 |
9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
0.00 |
0.26 |
8.00 |
1.00 |
1.26 |
7 |
| New York Jets |
-1.00 |
2.01 |
3.00 |
0.38 |
1.39 |
5 |
| Oakland Raiders |
0.00 |
1.15 |
5.00 |
0.63 |
1.77 |
6 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
3.00 |
0.05 |
-8.00 |
-1.00 |
2.05 |
9 |
| Los Angeles Chargers |
3.00 |
0.06 |
-5.00 |
-0.63 |
2.43 |
9 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
1.00 |
2.31 |
-1.00 |
-0.13 |
3.18 |
4 |
| Denver Broncos |
1.00 |
1.89 |
5.00 |
0.63 |
3.52 |
5 |
| Chicago Bears |
2.00 |
2.23 |
-4.00 |
-0.50 |
3.73 |
5 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
3.00 |
1.42 |
-2.00 |
-0.25 |
4.17 |
6 |
| New York Giants |
1.00 |
3.21 |
2.00 |
0.25 |
4.46 |
3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
3.00 |
2.48 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
5.48 |
5 |
| Houston Texans |
2.00 |
2.99 |
6.00 |
0.75 |
5.74 |
4 |
| Cleveland Browns |
3.00 |
5.81 |
7.00 |
0.88 |
9.69 |
0 |
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