2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity

2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity

The final piece of my three-part series regards what I have coined “Point Elasticity”, which was the genesis of this series. Let me explain. At a fundamental level when choosing a weekly (or at times, season) lineup an owner is given:

1. Player Points/Game Average
2. Matchup/Strength of Schedule (SOS)

See below for an example of a FanDuel Lineup Selection:

Those two pieces of data are critical, don’t get me wrong. One stat gives you player weekly performance and another gives you the strength of opponent. However, why does it not ALSO tell you how well (not well) a player reacts to SOS? That is if a player averages 10 Points/Game (P/G) regardless of competition, why should that matter in your selection? Likewise, if a player averages 7.5 P/G and tends to perform better against poor competition/worse against good competition doesn’t that tell you playing against a bad team may be a good sign?

What the 2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity tells us is how much a player’s weekly output has to do with the opponent he’s facing (what math guys call “correlate”).

You can find the rankings below, and work through the raw data if you wish in the 2017 NFL Fantasy Consistency Data.

*Only players above 7.5 PPG (additionally deleted non-fantasy relevant players)

Elastic/most dependent on SOS

Rank	Name, Team, Pos.	P Avg.	SOS Avg.	Pt. ELAS.
1	C.J. Beathard, SF QB	13.3	14.06	0.98
2	Jared Goff, LAR QB	15.82	16.56	0.78
3	O.J. Howard, TB TE Q	7.68	12.13	0.73
4	Amari Cooper, Oak WR	10.11	16.06	0.7
5	Dalvin Cook, Min RB Q	16.35	15.69	0.7
6	Andy Dalton, Cin QB	11.48	13.56	0.68
7	Jack Doyle, Ind TE	8.87	16.38	0.65
8	Danny Amendola, NE WR	8.06	15.13	0.63
9	Aaron Rodgers, GB QB Q	18.5	12.19	0.59
10	T.J. Yates, Hou QB	8.5	15.63	0.58
11	Michael Crabtree, Oak WR	12.82	16.06	0.57
12	Rex Burkhead, NE RB	12.98	17.06	0.57
13	Brett Hundley, GB QB	11.56	12.19	0.56
14	Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR Q	9.54	17.13	0.55
15	Dak Prescott, Dal QB	14.61	16.63	0.53
16	Robert Woods, LAR WR	12.86	16.19	0.52
17	Tyreek Hill, KC WR	15.15	14.38	0.51
18	Adam Shaheen, Chi TE	8.54	9.69	0.51
19	Hunter Henry, LAC TE Q	10.58	18.06	0.5
20	Demaryius Thomas, Den WR	12.87	17.13	0.49
21	Matthew Stafford, Det QB	15.99	15.75	0.48
22	Jay Cutler, Mia QB	11.26	13.94	0.47
23	Keelan Cole, Jax WR	8.85	15.81	0.47
24	Leonard Fournette, Jax RB	17.71	16.13	0.46
25	Drew Stanton, Ari QB Q	10.08	15.75	0.46
26	Randall Cobb, GB WR	10.74	14.56	0.45
27	Jermaine Kearse, NYJ WR	10.44	14.63	0.44
28	DeMarco Murray, Ten RB Q	10.83	17.44	0.44
29	Dion Lewis, NE RB	12.69	17.06	0.43
30	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR	16.34	17.13	0.43
31	Joe Flacco, Bal QB	11.56	15.81	0.43
32	C.J. Anderson, Den RB	9.26	16.25	0.42
33	Marquise Goodwin, SF WR Q	11.24	15.94	0.41
34	Carlos Hyde, SF RB	14.61	12.5	0.4
35	Le’Veon Bell, Pit RB	21.57	14.81	0.4
36	Jacoby Brissett, Ind QB	11.75	14.56	0.4
37	Jarvis Landry, Mia WR	12.88	17.81	0.4
38	Adrian Peterson, Ari RB Q	7.89	16.69	0.4
39	Theo Riddick, Det RB	9.06	13.56	0.39
40	Brandon LaFell, Cin WR	7.8	11.88	0.38
41	Tom Brady, NE QB	13.99	12.25	0.38
42	Matt Forte, NYJ RB Q	10.03	16.31	0.38
43	Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB	16.72	14.44	0.38
44	Frank Gore, Ind RB	9.73	15.69	0.37
45	Eric Ebron, Det TE	8.28	10.25	0.37
46	Blaine Gabbert, Ari QB	10.52	15.75	0.37
47	Jimmy Graham, Sea TE	7.8	17.56	0.36
48	Charles Clay, Buf TE	8.29	14.38	0.35
49	Matt Moore, Mia QB	10.33	13.94	0.35
50	Alvin Kamara, NO RB	17.21	16.56	0.34