2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity The final piece of my three-part series regards what I have coined “Point Elasticity”, which was the genesis of this series. Let me explain. At a fundamental level when choosing a weekly (or at times, season) lineup an owner is given:
1. Player Points/Game Average 2. Matchup/Strength of Schedule (SOS)
See below for an example of a FanDuel Lineup Selection:
Those two pieces of data are critical, don’t get me wrong. One stat gives you player weekly performance and another gives you the strength of opponent. However, why does it not ALSO tell you how well (not well) a player reacts to SOS? That is if a player averages 10 Points/Game (P/G) regardless of competition, why should that matter in your selection? Likewise, if a player averages 7.5 P/G and tends to perform better against poor competition/worse against good competition doesn’t that tell you playing against a bad team may be a good sign?
What the 2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity tells us is how much a player’s weekly output has to do with the opponent he’s facing (what math guys call “correlate”).
You can find the rankings below, and work through the raw data if you wish in the 2017 NFL Fantasy Consistency Data. *Only players above 7.5 PPG (additionally deleted non-fantasy relevant players)
Elastic/most dependent on SOS
Rank
Name, Team, Pos.
P Avg.
SOS Avg.
Pt. ELAS.
1
C.J. Beathard, SF QB
13.3
14.06
0.98
2
Jared Goff, LAR QB
15.82
16.56
0.78
3
O.J. Howard, TB TE Q
7.68
12.13
0.73
4
Amari Cooper, Oak WR
10.11
16.06
0.7
5
Dalvin Cook, Min RB Q
16.35
15.69
0.7
6
Andy Dalton, Cin QB
11.48
13.56
0.68
7
Jack Doyle, Ind TE
8.87
16.38
0.65
8
Danny Amendola, NE WR
8.06
15.13
0.63
9
Aaron Rodgers, GB QB Q
18.5
12.19
0.59
10
T.J. Yates, Hou QB
8.5
15.63
0.58
11
Michael Crabtree, Oak WR
12.82
16.06
0.57
12
Rex Burkhead, NE RB
12.98
17.06
0.57
13
Brett Hundley, GB QB
11.56
12.19
0.56
14
Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR Q
9.54
17.13
0.55
15
Dak Prescott, Dal QB
14.61
16.63
0.53
16
Robert Woods, LAR WR
12.86
16.19
0.52
17
Tyreek Hill, KC WR
15.15
14.38
0.51
18
Adam Shaheen, Chi TE
8.54
9.69
0.51
19
Hunter Henry, LAC TE Q
10.58
18.06
0.5
20
Demaryius Thomas, Den WR
12.87
17.13
0.49
21
Matthew Stafford, Det QB
15.99
15.75
0.48
22
Jay Cutler, Mia QB
11.26
13.94
0.47
23
Keelan Cole, Jax WR
8.85
15.81
0.47
24
Leonard Fournette, Jax RB
17.71
16.13
0.46
25
Drew Stanton, Ari QB Q
10.08
15.75
0.46
26
Randall Cobb, GB WR
10.74
14.56
0.45
27
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ WR
10.44
14.63
0.44
28
DeMarco Murray, Ten RB Q
10.83
17.44
0.44
29
Dion Lewis, NE RB
12.69
17.06
0.43
30
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
16.34
17.13
0.43
31
Joe Flacco, Bal QB
11.56
15.81
0.43
32
C.J. Anderson, Den RB
9.26
16.25
0.42
33
Marquise Goodwin, SF WR Q
11.24
15.94
0.41
34
Carlos Hyde, SF RB
14.61
12.5
0.4
35
Le’Veon Bell, Pit RB
21.57
14.81
0.4
36
Jacoby Brissett, Ind QB
11.75
14.56
0.4
37
Jarvis Landry, Mia WR
12.88
17.81
0.4
38
Adrian Peterson, Ari RB Q
7.89
16.69
0.4
39
Theo Riddick, Det RB
9.06
13.56
0.39
40
Brandon LaFell, Cin WR
7.8
11.88
0.38
41
Tom Brady, NE QB
13.99
12.25
0.38
42
Matt Forte, NYJ RB Q
10.03
16.31
0.38
43
Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB
16.72
14.44
0.38
44
Frank Gore, Ind RB
9.73
15.69
0.37
45
Eric Ebron, Det TE
8.28
10.25
0.37
46
Blaine Gabbert, Ari QB
10.52
15.75
0.37
47
Jimmy Graham, Sea TE
7.8
17.56
0.36
48
Charles Clay, Buf TE
8.29
14.38
0.35
49
Matt Moore, Mia QB
10.33
13.94
0.35
50
Alvin Kamara, NO RB
17.21
16.56
0.34
Least Elastic/no help from SOS
Rank
Name, Team, Pos.
P Avg.
SOS Avg.
Pt. Elas.
1
Kyle Rudolph, Min TE
9.33
11.94
0.01
2
Martavis Bryant, Pit WR
8.83
14
0.01
3
Kenyan Drake, Mia RB
10.95
16.06
0.01
4
Marcus Mariota, Ten QB Q
14.03
15.94
0.01
5
Sterling Shepard, NYG WR Q
9.86
16.69
0.01
6
Blake Bortles, Jax QB Q
15.04
16.69
0.01
7
Todd Gurley II, LAR RB
24.35
12.69
0.02
8
Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB QB
7.82
15.19
0.02
9
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR Q
18.5
16.69
0.02
10
Eric Decker, Ten WR
7.75
12.38
0.02
11
Alshon Jeffery, Phi WR
12.46
16
0.02
12
Mike Gillislee, NE RB
7.64
17.06
0.02
13
Tyler Kroft, Cin TE
8.24
13.88
0.02
14
Tarik Cohen, Chi RB
8.82
13.88
0.02
15
Delanie Walker, Ten TE
10.91
17.06
0.03
16
Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
17.49
14.94
0.04
17
Jeremy Maclin, Bal WR
7.75
11.63
0.04
18
Derek Carr, Oak QB
11.35
12.31
0.05
19
Allen Hurns, Jax WR
8.14
15.81
0.05
20
Devonta Freeman, Atl RB Q
11.73
14.44
0.05
21
Austin Ekeler, LAC RB
7.53
15
0.05
22
Kirk Cousins, Wsh QB
15.1
15.63
0.05
23
Joshua Bellamy, Chi WR
7.58
13.13
0.06
24
Latavius Murray, Min RB
9.84
15.69
0.06
25
Jerick McKinnon, Min RB
10.01
15.69
0.07
26
Golden Tate, Det WR
14.03
12.25
0.07
27
Adam Humphries, TB WR
8.04
14.56
0.07
28
Nelson Agholor, Phi WR
10.97
16
0.08
29
Peyton Barber, TB RB
7.79
12.94
0.08
30
Will Fuller V, Hou WR Q
9.52
14.38
0.08
31
Dede Westbrook, Jax WR
8.27
15.81
0.08
32
Mike Wallace, Bal WR
8.88
11.63
0.08
33
Josh McCown, NYJ QB Q
14.43
14.44
0.08
34
Russell Wilson, Sea QB
18.93
18.69
0.09
35
Antonio Brown, Pit WR
19.59
14
0.09
36
Adam Thielen, Min WR
12.17
11.5
0.09
37
A.J. Green, Cin WR Q
14.18
11.88
0.09
38
Pierre Garcon, SF WR Q
10.13
15.94
0.09
39
Deshaun Watson, Hou QB Q
21.54
15.63
0.09
40
Trevor Siemian, Den QB Q
11.47
15.13
0.1
41
Sammy Watkins, LAR WR
9.81
16.19
0.1
42
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB
14.97
16.38
0.11
43
Keenan Allen, LAC WR
13.83
16.25
0.11
44
LeSean McCoy, Buf RB
14.79
16.69
0.11
45
Jesse James, Pit TE
8.18
14.06
0.11
46
Jordan Reed, Wsh TE Q
8.52
16.44
0.11
47
Rishard Matthews, Ten WR
8.59
12.38
0.11
48
Cam Newton, Car QB Q
15.34
14.38
0.11
49
Julio Jones, Atl WR
11.81
17.5
0.11
50
DeVante Parker, Mia WR
10
17.81
0.12
Like always, I hope you got some value out of the 2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity, but instead of giving my insight, I will let the numbers speak for themselves. If you have questions/would like to request more detailed reports, please comment below.
*Note: Although its a rarity, especially given we are only looking at fantasy-relevant players, if a player posted 0 points for a given week, its assumed he was hurt and that week’s score was not taken into account for the averages.
