2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity

2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity

The final piece of my three-part series regards what I have coined “Point Elasticity”, which was the genesis of this series. Let me explain. At a fundamental level when choosing a weekly (or at times, season) lineup an owner is given:

1. Player Points/Game Average
2. Matchup/Strength of Schedule (SOS)

See below for an example of a FanDuel Lineup Selection:

2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity

Those two pieces of data are critical, don’t get me wrong. One stat gives you player weekly performance and another gives you the strength of opponent. However, why does it not ALSO tell you how well (not well) a player reacts to SOS? That is if a player averages 10 Points/Game (P/G) regardless of competition, why should that matter in your selection? Likewise, if a player averages 7.5 P/G and tends to perform better against poor competition/worse against good competition doesn’t that tell you playing against a bad team may be a good sign?

What the 2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity tells us is how much a player’s weekly output has to do with the opponent he’s facing (what math guys call “correlate”).

You can find the rankings below, and work through the raw data if you wish in the 2017 NFL Fantasy Consistency Data.

*Only players above 7.5 PPG (additionally deleted non-fantasy relevant players)

Elastic/most dependent on SOS

Rank Name, Team, Pos. P Avg. SOS Avg. Pt. ELAS.
1 C.J. Beathard, SF QB 13.3 14.06 0.98
2 Jared Goff, LAR QB 15.82 16.56 0.78
3 O.J. Howard, TB TE Q 7.68 12.13 0.73
4 Amari Cooper, Oak WR 10.11 16.06 0.7
5 Dalvin Cook, Min RB Q 16.35 15.69 0.7
6 Andy Dalton, Cin QB 11.48 13.56 0.68
7 Jack Doyle, Ind TE 8.87 16.38 0.65
8 Danny Amendola, NE WR 8.06 15.13 0.63
9 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB Q 18.5 12.19 0.59
10 T.J. Yates, Hou QB 8.5 15.63 0.58
11 Michael Crabtree, Oak WR 12.82 16.06 0.57
12 Rex Burkhead, NE RB 12.98 17.06 0.57
13 Brett Hundley, GB QB 11.56 12.19 0.56
14 Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR Q 9.54 17.13 0.55
15 Dak Prescott, Dal QB 14.61 16.63 0.53
16 Robert Woods, LAR WR 12.86 16.19 0.52
17 Tyreek Hill, KC WR 15.15 14.38 0.51
18 Adam Shaheen, Chi TE 8.54 9.69 0.51
19 Hunter Henry, LAC TE Q 10.58 18.06 0.5
20 Demaryius Thomas, Den WR 12.87 17.13 0.49
21 Matthew Stafford, Det QB 15.99 15.75 0.48
22 Jay Cutler, Mia QB 11.26 13.94 0.47
23 Keelan Cole, Jax WR 8.85 15.81 0.47
24 Leonard Fournette, Jax RB 17.71 16.13 0.46
25 Drew Stanton, Ari QB Q 10.08 15.75 0.46
26 Randall Cobb, GB WR 10.74 14.56 0.45
27 Jermaine Kearse, NYJ WR 10.44 14.63 0.44
28 DeMarco Murray, Ten RB Q 10.83 17.44 0.44
29 Dion Lewis, NE RB 12.69 17.06 0.43
30 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR 16.34 17.13 0.43
31 Joe Flacco, Bal QB 11.56 15.81 0.43
32 C.J. Anderson, Den RB 9.26 16.25 0.42
33 Marquise Goodwin, SF WR Q 11.24 15.94 0.41
34 Carlos Hyde, SF RB 14.61 12.5 0.4
35 Le’Veon Bell, Pit RB 21.57 14.81 0.4
36 Jacoby Brissett, Ind QB 11.75 14.56 0.4
37 Jarvis Landry, Mia WR 12.88 17.81 0.4
38 Adrian Peterson, Ari RB Q 7.89 16.69 0.4
39 Theo Riddick, Det RB 9.06 13.56 0.39
40 Brandon LaFell, Cin WR 7.8 11.88 0.38
41 Tom Brady, NE QB 13.99 12.25 0.38
42 Matt Forte, NYJ RB Q 10.03 16.31 0.38
43 Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB 16.72 14.44 0.38
44 Frank Gore, Ind RB 9.73 15.69 0.37
45 Eric Ebron, Det TE 8.28 10.25 0.37
46 Blaine Gabbert, Ari QB 10.52 15.75 0.37
47 Jimmy Graham, Sea TE 7.8 17.56 0.36
48 Charles Clay, Buf TE 8.29 14.38 0.35
49 Matt Moore, Mia QB 10.33 13.94 0.35
50 Alvin Kamara, NO RB 17.21 16.56 0.34

Least Elastic/no help from SOS

Rank Name, Team, Pos. P Avg. SOS Avg. Pt. Elas.
1 Kyle Rudolph, Min TE 9.33 11.94 0.01
2 Martavis Bryant, Pit WR 8.83 14 0.01
3 Kenyan Drake, Mia RB 10.95 16.06 0.01
4 Marcus Mariota, Ten QB Q 14.03 15.94 0.01
5 Sterling Shepard, NYG WR Q 9.86 16.69 0.01
6 Blake Bortles, Jax QB Q 15.04 16.69 0.01
7 Todd Gurley II, LAR RB 24.35 12.69 0.02
8 Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB QB 7.82 15.19 0.02
9 Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR Q 18.5 16.69 0.02
10 Eric Decker, Ten WR 7.75 12.38 0.02
11 Alshon Jeffery, Phi WR 12.46 16 0.02
12 Mike Gillislee, NE RB 7.64 17.06 0.02
13 Tyler Kroft, Cin TE 8.24 13.88 0.02
14 Tarik Cohen, Chi RB 8.82 13.88 0.02
15 Delanie Walker, Ten TE 10.91 17.06 0.03
16 Rob Gronkowski, NE TE 17.49 14.94 0.04
17 Jeremy Maclin, Bal WR 7.75 11.63 0.04
18 Derek Carr, Oak QB 11.35 12.31 0.05
19 Allen Hurns, Jax WR 8.14 15.81 0.05
20 Devonta Freeman, Atl RB Q 11.73 14.44 0.05
21 Austin Ekeler, LAC RB 7.53 15 0.05
22 Kirk Cousins, Wsh QB 15.1 15.63 0.05
23 Joshua Bellamy, Chi WR 7.58 13.13 0.06
24 Latavius Murray, Min RB 9.84 15.69 0.06
25 Jerick McKinnon, Min RB 10.01 15.69 0.07
26 Golden Tate, Det WR 14.03 12.25 0.07
27 Adam Humphries, TB WR 8.04 14.56 0.07
28 Nelson Agholor, Phi WR 10.97 16 0.08
29 Peyton Barber, TB RB 7.79 12.94 0.08
30 Will Fuller V, Hou WR Q 9.52 14.38 0.08
31 Dede Westbrook, Jax WR 8.27 15.81 0.08
32 Mike Wallace, Bal WR 8.88 11.63 0.08
33 Josh McCown, NYJ QB Q 14.43 14.44 0.08
34 Russell Wilson, Sea QB 18.93 18.69 0.09
35 Antonio Brown, Pit WR 19.59 14 0.09
36 Adam Thielen, Min WR 12.17 11.5 0.09
37 A.J. Green, Cin WR Q 14.18 11.88 0.09
38 Pierre Garcon, SF WR Q 10.13 15.94 0.09
39 Deshaun Watson, Hou QB Q 21.54 15.63 0.09
40 Trevor Siemian, Den QB Q 11.47 15.13 0.1
41 Sammy Watkins, LAR WR 9.81 16.19 0.1
42 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB 14.97 16.38 0.11
43 Keenan Allen, LAC WR 13.83 16.25 0.11
44 LeSean McCoy, Buf RB 14.79 16.69 0.11
45 Jesse James, Pit TE 8.18 14.06 0.11
46 Jordan Reed, Wsh TE Q 8.52 16.44 0.11
47 Rishard Matthews, Ten WR 8.59 12.38 0.11
48 Cam Newton, Car QB Q 15.34 14.38 0.11
49 Julio Jones, Atl WR 11.81 17.5 0.11
50 DeVante Parker, Mia WR 10 17.81 0.12

Like always, I hope you got some value out of the 2017 Fantasy Football Point Elasticity, but instead of giving my insight, I will let the numbers speak for themselves. If you have questions/would like to request more detailed reports, please comment below.

*Note: Although its a rarity, especially given we are only looking at fantasy-relevant players, if a player posted 0 points for a given week, its assumed he was hurt and that week’s score was not taken into account for the averages.

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