Newmanomics 2017 NFL Draft Rankings

Newmanomics thought we’d throw our hat in the ring of under-qualified folks telling fans who is going to be good at football.  And I suppose if we’re going to try this out, we wouldn’t fit in unless we told you how dumb the combine is, and its all about the gamefilm (which is true, and how I evaluated all of these players).  Special thanks to @draftbreakdown.  They made finding any/all game tapes on the prospects very easy, check them out at draftbreakdown.com.

So, without further adieu…

The rankings you’ll find below in NO WAY represent where I think a player will be picked.  What you’ll find below is (holding all equal, i.e. quality of team, coaching, injury and off field stuff held constant) the players ranked purely by talent/how I predict their NFL careers to shape up.

To be crystal clear, this “big board” may change, since I used the CBS Sportsline’s top 32 as my “base” (have not looked at all 300 something cats coming out), and after looking at 2-3 game films of each player I wanted to see within those most commonly associated with the “top 25” in the draft, who belongs and who doesn’t.

The biggest differences between my board and the common sentiment in the media:

-O.J. Howard, he may be the best offensive player in the draft

-Haason Reddick, true football player that doesn’t lack speed measurables

-Taco Charlton, stuck in the middle of a very strong edge class

-Derek Barnett, look at the film vs. Bama…its bad.  Ultimate looks like Tarzan/plays like Jane.

-Every QB, I completely understand the deficit of QBs in the league, but this is feeling like one of those “Chris Redman” type draft years for the position.

-John Ross, he broke the 40 record and that’s going to get him over drafted.

*Depending on feedback, I’m likely to do positional rankings as well, so stay tuned for that.  Ratings go from 1-10 (10 being high).

The distance between Myles and the number 2 isn’t the same as say the year of Jadeveon Clowney, but there is a steep drop.  He will be a day one starter/impact player wherever he ends up.  His combine numbers we’re insane to match his out-worldly athletic play on the field.  As long as he stays healthy, and I’m just being nit-picky about the head thing, he should be a perennial pro-bowl guy.

I really hope the team that takes him puts him in as an end in a 3-4, or MAYBE an end in a 4-3.  Either way, he’s an elite talent in this year’s draft, a notch below Myles, but still clearly in the top tier of the draft.

This is where Newmanomics ranking really start to look different than the media’s, but I have fallen in love with this guy’s tape.  Its not sexy, but downfield blocking is the most selfless, likely most important aspect to an offense that completely falls under the radar/yet impacts the set immensely, and I have not seen a guy block this well in a long time.  Then to top that off, his receiving skills are elite for his position, and clearly makes the most of his opportunities/plays his best ball vs. the best competition, on the biggest stage.  I would not be surprised if he’s the type of selfless talent that elevates his team in the first year.

This is another one I am going to catch some crap for.  When a coach says “he’s just a football player” its usually an insinuation on his athletic talent lacking (but having good mental characteristics, or being tough etc.)…this kid is one of the most athletic “just a football player”s I have ever seen.  He has size limitations, and will NOT excel in the NFL at his college position, but if a 3-4 team wants him at inside backer, or maybe a 4-3 team at outside, I can see this guy being a multiple pro-bowler in the near future.

Taco is another in the collection of players I have rated much higher than the media.  Just an ideal mix of size, speed and strength with plenty of playmaking ability on the field, hence, I can see him doing damage right away at the right program.

Marlon is as close to a pure shutdown (think they call them island corners now) CB this draft has.  He’s an aggressive and elite overall athlete that played in a multi-set defense in college, and can do anything you ask of him on defense.

From WR skills, he’s on par, maybe slightly better than OJ.  However, he’s not even in the Bama kid’s stratosphere when it comes to his blocking game.  Either way, I can see David having a higher ceiling with the right coaching staff, some more weight and a few technique tweaks.

Malik is an interesting cat.  He has a very unique body type (not in a bad way), that I have tried to compare but failed.  I think I like him most as a 3-4 DE, especially if it’s in a 2 gap system (big guy that can take up space and hold down two gaps, while LBs flow over the top of him).

In an ever, RB de-demanding-NFL, Leonard brings a little old school back in the mix.  He’s a power back with speed, ala Hershel Walker, Bo Jackson or dare I say Earl Campbell.  He’s a ton of fun to watch, and built like a grown ass man, yet as the quintessential bell cow back of the past 20ish years, he’ll have to bring his game to the 2017 NFL.  Bottom line:if this was 1990, he’d likely be a top 3 pick, but now he has to contend with the devaluation of RBs, and the increased demand for do-it-all RBs, which will bring his stock down regardless.

Not that he’s at this (or ever will be) level, but the Michael Irvins, and Brandon Marshalls of the world showed us the advantage a big strong WR brings to the table.  Not a lot of speed, quickness or height, but just natural brute strength can get a WR open…has that big RB look to him very similar to Sammy Watkins too (or maybe it was just the jersey/position).

Quick Profiles/Rank:                                                            

He’ll light you up, but at the cost of proper tackling form, missing a lot of tackles.  Looks like gumpy with those long arms, has a bit of nasty to him though.  He has some bend to get around the tackles on blitzes but I think is clearly going to be limited to being an inside the box safety.

Very impressive combine, running a lot faster than I thought, kinda the new age tweaner, lean for an interior guy/big for an end.  Almost mad dog ish with his aggressiveness, doesn’t posses elite burst, but makes up for it with his inside qualities.  Kid may end up a stud, just a whole lot of good dudes in that area in this draft.

His current injury concerns me, a bit of a stomach catcher who (not to me) has proven he can put up numbers against Power 5 teams, and needs to put on some weight.  I’ve gone back and forth on him quite a bit.

Crazy fast, willing tackler, with great man-to-man skills squeezing out fades, and jumping dig/in cutting routes, has some ball-hawk to him.  He’s one of those that seems (or is?) like he’s not even trying and this comes so easy to him.

High character guy, wont be a foundational component to an offense, but may be able to do the Tevin Coleman thing.  It seemed every run over 3 yards he had was when the O-Line created a massive hole for him.

Elite passing game RB, with very little shimmy, but very smooth one-cut runner.  I honestly think he would be best suited as a straight-up WR, but we’ll see how he’s used in the next level.

Tall, strider who has some makeup speed and willingness to tackle, but seems to take some poor angles and will cheat his coverage at times.  He strikes me as a little selfish, which may not be the worst thing (2-3 plays where he waited for the ball to ricochet, rather than going up to defend the ball).

Newmanomics Score: 2.5

**If I get enough feedback looking for positional rankings I’ll make that a priority for next week, so let me know.  Also, I love having some fun with the combine numbers.  Here’s a peek at my favorite ” True Power Scores”, (some call it weight adjusted 40s, vert.s etc.), that is, in the draft class, who is able to apply the largest amount of force against the ground? (Vertical x Weight).