NHL Predictions Using Luck’s Biggest Enemy: Tendency Towards the Mean

In typical me-fashion, here is the latest segment of “Who’s going up/Who’s going down”, about a week late (my bad).  Inspired by Phil Steel, and his yearly Preseason College Football (and pro) Magazine, filled with incredible empirically-based analysis, I have taken his (kinda obvious when you think about it) theory, that due to a tendency towards the mean/luck running out, teams that tend to win close games in the year prior, likely lose more (relative to the year prior’s total) the next, and vice-a-versa with losing close games.
Ms. Excel and I put lots of time into breaking down the data.  You can find the entire explanation/data set in my first blog by clicking here, along with my (quite correct) forecast for the 2015-16 NHL season, using said theory.  You can also find the NBA version by clicking here.


But now, to the new stuff, this year’s NHL prediction using my (nope, Phil Steele’s) theory:
Teams Going Up (63% chance of having a better record than last year)
-Buffalo Sabers (10 Net Close Losses last year)
-Carolina Hurricanes (9 NCL)
-Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators and Philadelphia Flyers (6 NCL)
-Anaheim Ducks (5 NCL)


Teams Going Down
-LA Kings (7 Net Close Wins last year)
-Colorado Avalanche (6 NCW)
-Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning and St. Louis Blues (5 NCW)







Reminder: “Going up” (or down) does not mean they are winning the cup, just that their record will be better than last year’s.  I was quite right last year, so if you’re looking for a place to drop a couple bucks, this should give you degenerates something to throw money at :).

*PS, I finally brought my blog into the 90s, by adding an email subscribe option…subscribe if you enjoyed, and stay tuned, I will be bringing in this cave drawing I call a blog into the 2000s in the next 6 months!

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